Beyond Predictive Analytics to Anticipatory Risk Analytics
Computational Quantitative Analytics: Beyond 'Prediction' to 'Anticipation of Risk'™
Finance-IT-Risk Analytics: Leading Industry Leaders & Learning from Them

Goldman Sachs The 'Anticipation of Surprise' Framework: Anticipatory Risk Analytics
* 20 Years of Computational Quant Risk Analytics Leading Industry Leaders.
* Download Research: Model Risk Management (MRM) Research Program.

* Federal Reserve/OCC Model Risk Management Guidance SR11-7/OCC 2011-12.

* Global Footprint of Our Research in Worldwide Firms, Governments, Institutions.

* World’s Largest Firms, Governments, & Organizations Applying our Research.
Over 20 Years of Computational Quantitative Anticipatory Risk Analytics…
* Risk Models: Statistics, Finance, Econometrics, IT, OR, Computer Sc., Telecom, …

* Risk Management & Controls: ERM, MRM, Assets, Markets, Exchanges, Networks, …

Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein told the Australian Institute of Company Directors at a breakfast briefing on Friday, July 26 2013, how investors should prepare for the most extreme risk scenario. His comments about risk management capture the essence of the 'anticipation of surprise' model mentioned above and explained in Dr. Yogesh Malhotra's research papers and research monographs published over the last decade or so.

"I'd just caution you that models are backward-lookingThe future isn’t the past."-- Jamie DimonChairman & CEO, JP Morgan Chase & Co.US Senate Banking Committee hearingJune 13, 2012.

JP Morgan
"The new business model of the Information Age, however, is marked by fundamental, not incremental, change. Businesses can't plan long-term; instead, they must shift to a more flexible 'anticipation-of-surprise' model."
-- Yogesh Malhotra in CIO Magazine interview, Sep. 15, 1999.
CIO Magazine

"The future is moving so quickly that you can’t anticipate it… We have put a tremendous emphasis on quick response instead of planning. We will continue to be surprised, but we won't be surprised that we are surprised. We will anticipate the surprise." - The 'Anticipation of Surprise' Framework

      Inc. Magazine

Fortune Magazine      


Leading Anticipatory Risk Analytics... since 1993

The concept of 'anticipation of surprise' articulated in a strategy journal* by scholar-practitioner Steve Kerr, the Chief Learning Officer of GE, and the future Goldman Sachs MD responsible for Goldman Sachs Leadership Development caught Yogesh Malhotra's fascination in 1995. Malhotra's research developed that concept into a comprehensive and actionable framework of model risk management of non-deterministic risks such as those associated with black swans through 'anticipation of surprise' by 'effective challenge of models'....

...Over subsequent years, Yogesh Malhotra's influential research and practices on realizing and executing the cyberspace era vision of risk modeling and risk management have guided world's greatest nations, firms, and institutions at the forefront of managing risk and uncertainty. During the same time span, Goldman Sachs as a firm is known to have fundamentally transformed its global risk management strategy around the same concept...

* Kerr, S. (1995). Creating the boundaryless organization: the radical reconstruction of organization capabilities. Planning Review, p. 41-45 (September-October)


...Subsequently, the Model Risk Guidance SR11-7/OCC 2011-12 was issued by US Federal Reserve and OCC in aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008... in 2011-2012. Just around the same time, as illustrated here, Wall Street CEOs, CFOs, and CROs started noting that "we must anticipate risk"...

...Coincidentally, this applied research program supported by a digital social enterprise has been already developing frameworks and models for the anticipated future of finance and future of risk starting with the first WWW-browser in 1993... adopted by worldwide firms, governments, and institutions... and written about and recommended by greatest tech visionaries such as Microsoft founder Bill Gates... ...Whether you are like us a Digital Transformation pioneer of Business Technology Management, Knowledge Management, Enterprise Risk Management, Model Risk Management, Cyber Risk Management, Cyber Finance, Cyber Insurance, FinTech and Model Risk Arbitrage or just getting started, you are all "welcome to the new world of business!!" being designed, practiced, and disseminated from that digital social enterprise for over two decades.

...Having affirmed the trajectory of his own post-doctoral quantitative risk modeling and risk management research in 2012 with the Columbia University Professor Emanuel Derman, world's most known expert on Model Risks in his view, who was prior MD and head of Quantitative Strategies group at Goldman Sachs, Dr. Yogesh Malhotra is optimistic about a more enlightened future of quantitative risk modeling...

2015-2017: 41 SSRN Top-10 Research Rankings: Top-10% SSRN Authors:
AI, Algorithms & Machine Learning; Anticipatory & Predictive Analytics:
Computer Science, Cybersecurity, Insurance, Quantitative Finance & Trading
SSRN Top-10 Research Ranking Categories:
• Capital Markets,
• Cognition in Mathematics, Science, & Technology,
• Computational Biology,
• Computational Techniques,
• Computing Technologies,
• Corporate Governance: Disclosure, Internal Control, & Risk-Management,
• Cyberlaw,
• Decision-Making under Risk & Uncertainty,
• Econometric & Statistical Methods,
• Econometric Modeling,
• Econometrics,
• Hedging & Derivatives,
• Information Systems & Economics,
• Interorganizational Networks & Organizational Behavior,
• Mathematical Methods & Programming,
• Microeconomics,
• Operations Research,
• Risk Management,
• Risk Management Controls,
• Risk Modeling,
• Social Network Analysis,
• Stochastic Models,
• Systemic Risk,
• Telecommunications & Network Models,
• Uncertainty & Risk Modeling,
• VaR Value-at-Risk.
Other Categories:
• Banking & Insurance
• Cultural Anthropology,
• Economics of Networks,
• Innovation Law & Policy,
• Mutual Funds, Hedge Funds, & Investment Industry,
• Sociology of Innovation

Recent Research Presentations and Research Reports
*Invited Princeton Quant Trading Presentations: 'Rethinking Finance' for the Era of Global Networked Digital Finance.
*2016 Princeton Quant Trading Conference Presentation: Beyond Stochastic Models to Non-Deterministic Methods.
*2015 Princeton Quant Trading Conference Presentation: Beyond Risk Modeling to Knightian Uncertainty Management.
*Beyond 'Bayesian vs. VaR' Dilemma: How to Manage Risk (After Risk Management Has Failed) for Hedge Funds.
*Markov Chain Monte Carlo Models for High-Dimensionality Complex Stochastic Problems in Network Security.
*Risk, Uncertainty, & Profit for the Cyber Era: 'Knight Reconsidered': Model Risk Management in Cyber Risk Insurance.
*Cyber-Finance Risk Management: Strategies, Tactics, Operations, &, Intelligence: ERM to Model Risk Management.
*Number Field Sieve Cryptanalytic Algorithms for Most Efficient Prime Factorization on Composites: Beyond RSA 1024.
* Bitcoin Protocol & Bitcoin Block Chain: Model of 'Cryptographic Proof' based Global Crypto-Currency Payment Systems.
*2015-2016 41 SSRN Top-10 Rankings: Computational Quantitative & Risk Analytics Algorithms Machine Learning Research.
* 2008 AACSB International Impact of Research Report: Among Black-Scholes, Markowitz, Sharpe, Modigliani & Miller.

Top Wall Street Investment Banks Quantitative Finance Projects & FinTech Ventures
Princeton: Future of Finance: 'Rethinking Finance' for Era of Global Networked Digital Finance
2016 Princeton Quant Trading Conference: Invited Research Presentation: Model Risk Arbitrage
2015 Princeton Quant Trading Conference: Invited Research Presentations: Future of Finance
Quantitative Finance Risk Analytics Modeling Wall Street Investment Banks & VC Projects
Model Risk Management: Risk Management Analytics from 'Prediction' to 'Anticipation of Risk'
Quantitative Finance Risk Analytics, Econometric Analytics, Numerical Programming Models
Quantitative Finance Model Risk Management for Systemic-Tail Risks in Cyber Risk Insurance
JP Morgan Portfolio Optimization, VaR & Stress Testing: 17-Asset Class Portfolio
JP Morgan Portfolio Liquidity Risk Modeling Framework for $500-600Bn Portfolio
Bayesian VaR Beyond Value-At-Risk (VaR) Model Risks Exposed by Global Financial Crisis
Goldman Sachs Alumnus Asset Manager Large-Scale Data High Freq Econometric Models
Quantitative Finance, Risk Modeling, Econometric Modeling, Numerical Programming
Technologies of Computational Quantitative Finance & Risk Analytics and Risk Management
Algorithms & Computational Finance: C++, SAS, Java, Machine Learning, Signal Processing
Cybersecurity, Financial Protocols & Networks Protocols Analysis, and, Penetration Testing
Impact: Quantitative Finance, Quantitative Risk Analytics & Risk Management Projects
Digital Social Enterprise Ventures Creating Trillion $ Practices for Hundreds of Millions

Named among FinTech Finance & IT Nobel laureates for Real World Impact of Research
FinTech Innovations: Model Risk Arbitrage, Open Systems Finance, Cyber Finance, Cyber Insurance
AACSB International Reports Impact of Research among Black-Scholes, Markowitz, Sharpe
Research Impact Recognized among Finance & Information Technology Nobel laureates
41 SSRN Top-10 Rankings: Computational Quant Finance: Algorithms, Methods & Models
FinTech Innovations: Model Risk Arbitrage, Cyber Finance, Cyber Risk Insurance Modeling
Computational Quantitative Finance Modeling & Risk Management Research Publications
Model Risk Management of Cyber Risk Insurance Models & Quantitative Finance Analytics
Thesis on Ongoing Convergence of Financial Risk Management & Cyber Risk Management
U.S. Federal Reserve & Office of the Comptroller of the Currency Model Risk Guidance
Bayesian VaR Beyond Value-At-Risk (VaR) Model Risks Exposed by Global Financial Crisis
Markov Chain Monte Carlo Models & Algorithms to Enable Bayesian Inference Modeling
OCC Notes Cybersecurity Risk & Cyber Attacks as Key Contributor to Banks' Financial Risk
Future of Bitcoin & Statistical Probabilistic Quantitative Methods: Global Financial Regulation
Models Validation Expert Panels: IT, Operations Research, Economics, Computer Science

Global, National, & Enterprise CxO Level FinTech-Cyber-Risk Analytics Ventures
CxO Think Tank that pioneered 'Digital' Management of Risk, Uncertainty, & Complexity
CxO Consulting: Global, National & Corporate Risk Management Practices Leadership
CxO Guidance: Cyber Defense & Finance-IT-Risk Management: Uncertainty & Risk
CxO Keynotes: Conference Board, Silicon Valley, UN, World Economy: Uncertainty & Risk
The Future of Finance Project Leading Quantitative Finance Practices at Elite Conferences
The Griffiss Cyberspace Cybersecurity Venture Spans Wall Street and Hi-Tech Research
UN Quantitative Economics Expert Paper & Keynote on Global Economists Expert Panel
National Science Foundation Cybersecurity & Cybercomputing National Expert Panels
Digital Social Enterprise Innovation Ventures Pioneering the Future of Risk and Quant
Global Footprint of Worldwide World-Leading CxO Risk Management Ventures & Practices

Research & Practices:
Dr. Yogesh MalhotraRESEARCHWall Street Quant: Big-3 Finance-IT LeaderResearch Impact among Nobel LaureatesPrinceton Quant Trading PresentationsVentures: Honors: [AI, Algorithms & Machine Learning] [Computational Quant Finance & Trading] [CyberSecurity Risk Engineering] [Digital Transformation Pioneer] [FinTech: 'Rethinking Finance']: *Research Impact *Beyond 'Prediction' *Future of Finance *Beyond VaR *Model Risk Management *Future of Risk *Cyber Risk *SSRN *Google Scholar *Publications *Projects *Goldman Sachs *JP Morgan *Wall Street Hedge Funds *Princeton Presentations *Model Risk Arbitrage *Cyber Finance *Cyber Risk Insurance *Quantum Crypto *Bayesian vs. VaR *Markov Chain Monte Carlo *Wireless Mobile Trust Models *VoIP Pen Testing Frameworks *Bitcoin Cryptanalytics *NFS Cryptanalytics Algorithms